Projections being made for this week's BCS standings (released tonight at 7:15) are in agreement on the top five: 1. Oregon, 2. Auburn, 3. TCU, 4. Boise State, 5. LSU.
If those standings hold through the end of the regular season, Oregon and Auburn would go to the National Championship Game (which is NCG in BCS speak) and TCU would go to the Rose Bowl, taking Oregon's place. Oregon would normally go to the Rose Bowl as the Pacific-10 champion.
Here is the new rule in the BCS eligibility released in April:
"For the games of January 2011 through 2014, the first year the Rose Bowl loses a team to the NCG and a team from the non-AQ group is an automatic qualifier, that non-AQ team will play in the Rose Bowl."
TCU under the current BCS standings is the automatic qualifier from the non-automatic qualifying group. Boise State can also go to a BCS bowl, but would do so as an at-large team.
Under these circumstances, TCU would play the winner from the Big Ten Conference, with Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan State in a battle for first place.
The Frogs barely passed Boise State in the USA Today coaches poll, jumping to No. 3 from fourth by a margin of 10 points (1,340 to 1,330). No. 4 Boise State had more first-place votes than TCU, 3-2.