The news out of Florida Wednesday could mark a watershed moment in college football history. According to Bowl Championship Series executive director Bill Hancock (see picture below), conference leaders are closer than ever to deciding on a playoff format which would most likely be in place for the 2014 season. Hancock said the group, which is meeting in Fort Lauderdale, hopes to whittle down potential formats Thursday to two or three top options. Conference leaders will then present the alternatives to school presidents, who will make the final call. A resolution and announcement could come as early as July.
The most likely format would pit the top four teams in two national semifinal games, probably at two existing BCS bowls (Fiesta, Sugar, Orange, Rose) in No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3 pairings. The winners would then meet in the BCS National Championship Game at another BCS bowl site a few weeks later. I’d vote for having the semifinals the week after the regular season. In 2011, for instance, that would have fallen on Saturday, Dec. 10. Then, in my scenario, the two winners would have 3-4 weeks to prepare for a Jan. 3-8 championship game. Of course, that falls the week of or before most schools have semester finals. So that idea may not work. If so, then I could see the two semifinals being played Dec. 31-Jan. 1, with the championship a week later.
The sites of the semifinals and championship would likely rotate every year and would probably include other prime venue options such as Cowboys Stadium. The rest of the bowl schedule would most likely proceed as usual, with the same teams and affiliations being matched up, preserving the much-discussed bowl tradition TCU's Gary Patterson and Oklahoma's Bob Stoops have championed.
While the move towards a playoff is momentous, long overdue and praiseworthy, I foresee more finger-pointing, hair-pulling and paranoid delusions of grandeur by fans convinced their team is being screwed out of a semifinal slot. Just take a gander at the last four years …
Last season the final BCS standings looked like this:
|
1. LSU |
13-0 |
|
2. Alabama |
11-1 |
|
3. Oklahoma State |
11-1 |
|
4. Stanford |
11-1 |
|
5. Oregon |
11-2 |
|
7. Boise State |
11-1 |
|
19. Houston |
12-1 |
The top four teams are no-brainer choices to compete in the semifinals. But what about Boise State? Heard that before, right? And Houston, which defeated No. 22 Penn State in the TicketCity Bowl to finish 13-1? In 2011, a four-team playoff would have netted the Cougars nothing more.
A playoff in 2010 would have been an even bigger mess. The final BCS standings looked like this:
|
1. Auburn |
13-0 |
|
2. Oregon |
12-0 |
|
3. TCU |
12-0 |
|
4. Stanford |
11-1 |
|
5. Wisconsin |
11-1 |
|
6. Ohio St. |
11-1 |
|
7. Oklahoma |
11-2 |
|
8. Arkansas |
10-2 |
|
9. Michigan St. |
11-1 |
|
10. Boise St. |
11-1 |
|
15. Nevada |
12-1 |
OK, the top three were undefeated, including No. 3 TCU. That’s easy. But who get’s the fourth semifinal spot? Six teams finished with one loss, meaning five schools would have been scorned.
In 2009, the season that screamed for a playoff more than any in memory, would have, perhaps, been the easiest to seed in a four-team format. Here’s how the BCS standings looked at the end of the regular season:
|
1. Alabama |
13-0 |
|
2. Texas |
13-0 |
|
3. Cincinnati |
12-0 |
|
4. TCU |
12-0 |
|
5. Florida |
12-1 |
|
6. Boise St. |
13-0 |
The standings were top heavy with five unbeaten teams and one-loss Florida ranked higher than 13-win Boise State. Bronco fans surely would have felt burned, especially since Boise State defeated the Horned Frogs in the Fiesta Bowl.
2008 would have been a pairings nightmare, too, with eight one-loss teams in the final BCS standings, and two undefeated teams (No. 6 Utah and No. 9 Boise State) not even in the top four.
|
1. Oklahoma |
12-1 |
|
2. Florida |
12-1 |
|
3. Texas |
11-1 |
|
4. Alabama |
12-1 |
|
5. USC |
11-1 |
|
6. Utah |
12-0 |
|
7. Texas Tech |
11-1 |
|
8. Penn State |
11-1 |
|
9. Boise St. |
12-0 |
|
22. Ball State |
12-1 |
Instead of one or two teams being snubbed for a chance to play for a National Championship you would have had six fan bases ticked off, believing they at least deserved to be ranked fourth and involved in playoff. Yes, even Ball State fans.
Nothing is official yet, and there are still plenty of logistics to figure out, but the BCS is moving, albeit slowly, in the right direction. By 2014, college football will take a step out of the dark ages towards progress, but you can count on this: the bickering, bellyaching, and bloodletting over the BCS won’t go away. It may be worse.
-- Stefan Stevenson
@FollowtheFrogs
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