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Cliff Lee, C.J. Wilson & the Big Mac Blog's Sabermetric equation

080730_ns_29RangersWilson Vegas has your Texas Rangers as 8-1 odds on favorites to win the 2011 World Series. I'm not worrying about that, but I am beginning to believe Los Rangers can reach the 2011 World Series, even without Cliff Lee throwing darts.

The reason? C.J. Wilson, and the following Big Mac Blog Sabermetric equation I just made up:

Baseball postseason + impending free agency = Career performance x $8 - $10 million

C.J. Wilson is looking at a huge pile o' cash, especially if he deals in this postseason, when he hits the market this winter. There may not be a more attractive free agent pitcher this winter than C.J. Take it with a grain of salt, but the soon-to-be Miami Marlins are said to be targeting Mr. Wilson to be a centerpiece of their new makeover that includes a new stadium, and new manager Ozzie Guillen.

The Rangers' Game 1 starter on Friday against Los Rays was 16-7 with a 2.94 ERA this season, and a healthy 7-4 with a 2.56 ERA since the All-Star break. And keeping with the Moneyball numbers thing I have going here, he was 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA against the Rays this season.

Not that this is an apples-to-apples comparison, but Wilson's 2011 second half was better than Lee's second half after the Rangers acquired him around the All-Star break in 2010.
Lee was 8-3 with a 2.34 ERA before he went to the Rangers, yet he finished 4-6 with a 3.98 ERA in Texas.

Then came the postseason when the Big Mac Blog's Sabermetric equation kicked in. Lee was going to get paid either way, but his asking price increased after he domanated Cliff-lee-rangers-33c5eb29709d0486 the Rays and Yankees in the ALDS and ALCS, respectively.

Wilson is left handed, very good, and is going to get paid this offseason. If he can do anything close to what Lee did last year in the ALDS or ALCS, his asking price is going to take off. 


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